The Sweet Lure of Prediction Arb: How I Tried to Speedrun a Rust Monitor (and Fried My Brain)

It all started with some casual research. I was deep down the prediction market rabbit hole, trying to figure out if there was any real alpha in playing options strategies based on crypto crowd expectations. Then I spotted it: the discrepancies. You could buy >Yes on one platform, grab >No on another, and pocket a risk-free delta. The spreads weren't massive, but they were definitely there. Just to give you an idea, here is one of the tastiest setups from that time: Imagine an NBA market like "N