Oil Tops $106 a Barrel as Strait of Hormuz Crisis Deepens

Global oil prices surged past $106 a barrel on Monday as the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz showed no signs of easing, with Iran continuing to block one of the world's most critical energy chokepoints and diplomatic efforts to reopen the waterway stalling.

Brent crude, the global benchmark, rose as much as 3 percent on Sunday before settling at $104.63 per barrel in early Monday trading. Oil prices have climbed more than 40 percent since the start of the US-Israel conflict with Iran in late February, driving up fuel costs worldwide and stoking fears of a global economic slowdown.

Near-Total Shipping Halt

According to the UK Maritime Trade Operations centre, no more than five ships have passed through the Strait of Hormuz each day since the conflict began, compared with a historical average of 138 daily transits. At least 16 commercial vessels have been attacked in the region. The strait normally carries approximately one-fifth of the world's oil supply.

Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has declared that it will not allow "a litre of oil" through the waterway, warning that any vessel linked to the United States, Israel, or their allies would be considered a legitimate target.

Economic Fallout

Goldman Sachs has raised its 2026 US inflation forecast by 0.8 percentage points to 2.9 percent, while trimming GDP growth projections. Oxford Economics has modeled a scenario in which oil averaging $140 a barrel for two months could push the eurozone, the UK, and Japan into recession.

President Trump has called on other nations to help reopen the strait, but the proposal has received a muted response, with no country publicly committing to deploying naval forces. Higher energy, fertilizer, and transport costs threaten to intensify cost-of-living pressures globally, particularly for vulnerable populations.